Sar Shalom
Donald Trump is rightfully turning up the pressure against Iran by gradually removing exceptions to the sanctions. However, some supporters of this measure are possibly overstating the potential that the misery created by such sanctions will finally provide the Iranian people with enough motivation to overthrow their regime. One thing that events of this year should teach us is that the Iranian people have no shortage of motivation to overthrow their regime. What they lack is capacity, which no amount of sanctions can provide.
In the linked example, insurgents in Sistan-Baluchistan attacked an IRGC personnel carrier. The only tear we should shed over the fallen IRGC members is that the casualty number didn't have a few zeros appended at the right. However, we should not pretend that the loss of a few dozen grunts, or even a couple thousand grunts, would actually degrade the IRGC's ability to repress the Iranian people. What's needed is to build the Baluchi Army of Justice, Jaish ul Adl, and the Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahvaz into a force that can be to the IRGC what the Houthis are to the legitimate government of Yemen. In order to become such a threat, those organizations would need two things. First is the strategic acumen to identify consequential targets, that is targets whose being hit would meaningfully degrade the regime's ability to cement its hold on power. The second is the tactical ability to hit those targets.
The first of those could be achieved by bringing the insurgent leaders to a safe destination where either American or Israeli operatives could train them. The second might also require the delivery of materiel, but if Israel can smuggle the nuclear archive out of Tehran, Israel can smuggle armaments to the insurgents.
The Day of the Dhimmi is Done - Michael Lumish, PhD, proprietor. (mike.lumish@gmail.com)
If only such an outcome were possible. I am pessimistic about it though; the current regime has vast resources and a willingness to kill its own people in vast numbers. The regime also has the support of most of the bad actors in the world today as well as the hands off give 'em billions opinion of Dems who are likely to regain power in 2020 and remain in power for some time.
ReplyDeleteThe latest Trumpian move to send warships and bombers to the region based partly on Israel's warnings about an attack has already fired up the Dems who, in their typical sky is falling rhetoric claim Trump is dragging the US into a war with Iran.
If the Dems and their base can't support regime change in Venezuela, they certainly won't support it in Iran. And that will be that. Obama abandoned Iranians last time. Expect his party to do the same next time.
When you say Dems will regain power, what do you mean? Do you mean hold the House, or take the Senate, or win the presidency? Why?
DeleteJeff, I figure they will win the Presidency and hold the House. If his approval rate is no higher than 45% after the booming economy and job market i don't think it will ever get any higher and I figure, based on historical precedents, that he needs at least 50% or higher to win.
DeleteThe Dems and the media are not gonna give up the constant malignment and if their efforts have succeeded so far after all Trump has done, well....... The fact that Bernie is second proves that a lot of Americans are insane. The fact that Biden is first by a long ways proves it even more.
G-d bless America. G-d help America.
Possible changes in US governance could bring America out of making any of this happening. However, reliance on proxy forces would mean that the needed direct outside action would be small enough that Israel could do it without any other contributors of personnel. Conceivably, the training could take place on Israeli soil, but more likely would require territory closer to Iran. If a closer training venue is needed, the Gulf states would probably allow Israeli operatives to conduct such training if they don't call attention to their presence.
DeleteAs to the regime's willingness to use all measures to suppress insurrection, part of the training would be in how to be invisible to the IRGC, like the Harii in the Battle of Teutoburg Forest, so that the only effective suppression that the regime could apply would be to wipe whole towns off the map.
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DeleteWell, Sar. I'm all for all of that. Regime change in Iran would make the world a better safer place.
DeletePresidential elections have a way of focusing the electorate more intensely on issues that matter to them. Those tend to be bread and butter issues. The constant din of National Enquirer style stories and conspiracy theories shrink in importance. So-called moral and faux legal questions don't compete well with people's pocketbooks in the end. Erst kommt das Fressen, dan commit die Moral.
DeleteIn the current political climate, as during the 2016 election cycle, many people shied away from pollsters' questions about support for Trump. I think there is still a lot of that.
I wouldn't write off a Trump re-election.
Jeff, for the first time in my life I am rooting for a Republican, Trump, to be elected. I don't feel like a traitor to the Liberal cause because Trump has done many things Liberals SHOULD have done. Most of it revolves around Israel but he also has reformed criminal justice allowing non-violent offenders like drug offenders a better shot at life and rehab. THAT'S a Liberal ideal and is LONG in coming. It effects blacks mostly but he's a racist according to Dems. That's another lie and it's illiberal. There is more but I am sure you get where I'm coming from.
DeleteNot ONE top or middle 2020 Presidential candidate weighed in on their precious Gazans launching over 700 rockets into Israel. That's COWARDICE of the first order and condemns to the garbage pile for me. So, I hope I am wrong.
Conventional wisdom would indicate Trump loses in 2020, just like in 2016. But he has a record now. People can see he is not the monster he is made to be. It's an open question whether his foes are actually more dishonest and dangerous to our well-being. They are certainly less genuine. Not to mention the propensity to overreach, as they push themselves into a frenzy in political, cultural and educational circles. In an environment where any positive reference to Trump is virtually verboten, it's impossible to know where the people really stand. It was recently reported that black women support Trump at 29%. What happens to the Democrats if Trump gets 20% of the black vote? Before Trump, did anyone really confront these major problems that he inherited, or kick the can down the road? So far, things seem to be better and the world has not ended. The Russia hoax, followed by this Soviet style of looking for wrong, may cause a silent majority of woke people, fed up with all the lies and deception. And then there's the banning of diversity of opinion. Who knows where it's all headed?
DeleteDoodad,
DeleteSame with me.
The face of the Democratic Party has become too ugly to ignore. Of course, many Democrats are not as nearly as bad, but they are not wagging the party.
The party is appealing to the nut jobs. This is exactly what they accused Trump of doing with the so-called alt-Right. Only they are doing so much more of it, and quite openly. In addition, the news media stinks.
I wrote about what can be done about Iran, not about Trump's political prospects. In some ways, whether or not Trump gets reelected could affect whether or not what I suggest could get implemented. However, the type of outside intervention is within Israel's capabilities, albeit not as easy as for the US and with greater dependency on cooperation from some power in the Gulf.
Deletehttps://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/273765/how-defeat-tehrans-islamic-republic-michael-ledeen
DeleteLedeen thinks even Trump doesn't have the "will," to sponsor regime change in Iran. Interesting.
I would point out that Sar is very very right about the unrset among the Iranian people. Yesterday I saw a post outlining all the unrest there but forgot where I saw it. Not much in the media about it, even the conservative sites. Iran is denying it attacked the Saudi and Norwegian ships recently...who knows. I suspect sooner or later some will blame Israel of doing a false flag to stir up tensions. Hopefully Sar will keep us better informed if he comes across any further info. And thanks for this post Sar.
ReplyDeleteI don't follow things that closely, so I don't think I'll be able to help you there. Further, for what I advocate to be effective, plausible deniability would be somewhere between helpful and essential.
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