So, where are people viz-a-viz the two-state solution these days?
Do you think that it is dead entirely?
If not, do you think that it should be shot and put out of its misery?
Or do you hold out hope for its revival and eventual success?
And, if so, must it come via a negotiated settlement or can it come from unilateral disengagement?
What we have just witnessed is the collapse of Oslo and, yet again, another Gaza action.
The Obama administration and the EU are going to twist Jewish arms to keep the charade going, but I do not know if they can blow enough life into the idea of negotiations to use it as a strangle-hold on Israel over the next few years... before the next Gaza operation.
What Obama and the EU may do instead, with Obama leading from behind, is to try to choke the country into submission, via economic and diplomatic pressure, to ensure that no Jews build housing for themselves where neither Obama, nor Mahmoud Abbas, want us to.
What Obama and the EU may do instead, with Obama leading from behind, is to try to choke the country into submission, via economic and diplomatic pressure, to ensure that no Jews build housing for themselves where neither Obama, nor Mahmoud Abbas, want us to.
So, I guess the real question for me is whether or not we'll ever actually get out of this Möbius Loop?
Or will it remain like some Twilight Zone episode in which we pull into the same train station over and over and over again?
Well, we seem to be finally pulling out of Centerville this time...
ReplyDelete.
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Unilateral declaration of final borders. Keeping all of Jerusalem, as well as large, close-in Jewish towns 'outside' the 1967 armistice lines, which was never a 'border.'
Devastating and crushing response to any further breaches of / attacks upon those borders from outside entities, just as any other nation in the world would greet such a foreign attack upon their sovereignty.
If you ask me.
It seems clear there will never be a 'negotiated settlement,' so this is the best outcome I see for all parties involved, except of course for the vile crooks and terrorists in the Palestinian-Arab 'leadership' who hope to keep stealing and begging as long as possible.
I disagree with those claim that the status quo cannot go on forever. It can, in my view, certainly last at least another couple decades, until the cheap oil age comes to an end, after which Western nations will have much bigger, and closer to home, worries than the Arab-Israel conflict. And will no longer have to kiss the asses of backwards, terror-funding 'nations.'
I would certainly much more prefer the former scenario than the latter, but of course that's just the opinion of one Jew in Philadelphia. I trust Israel's leaders and people to make the right choice for them, and I'll support them in whatever it is they ultimately decide that is.
Jay, I agree with pretty much everything that you've written, although I would quibble about the status quo.
DeleteThe status quo, theoretically, could go on for G-d only knows how long. It could, in fact, go on for a very long time were it not for the distinct possibility that sufficient pressure would be brought to bare on Israel by the coordinated efforts of the EU, the UN, and the US under this administration.
And that's precisely why Kerry's comment was more threat than friendly advice.
I would also note that your comment would probably have gotten you banned from dkos when I was there. It certainly would have gotten you troll rated into oblivion.
Oh, and btw, good luck on the road.
DeleteYou are in for one hell of an experience over the next year.
I'm hoping that you'll still have some time to post.
Thanks, although I wish I would have done this ten years ago. Or even two or three years ago. Then I'd already be home every day, driving nights for UPS on a local run or driving city buses for SEPTA. Argh. Don't really want to do a year over the road, but if I gotta do it I just hope it goes quick!
DeleteYeah, I'll still be around here and elsewhere, especially since for the most part my 10-hour breaks and 34-hour resets will likely be spent at rest stops or truck stops in the middle of nowhere, and I'll have my phone and my laptop with me...
"I would also note that your comment would probably have gotten you banned from dkos when I was there. It certainly would have gotten you troll rated into oblivion."
DeleteReminds me of that kids' show back in the 80s I used to watch. "You Can't Say That at Daily Kos," eh?
That whole place was a fucking joke with a children's show mentality, when I think about it. Everybody has to think alike (The Correct Way(tm), of course), everybody gets a trophy (except for Jews and Israel, apparently), etc etc. A microcosm of where the 'Progressive-Left' in general is heading anymore, it seems.
Meteor Blades would have been Pee Wee Herman, I suppose...
I agree the status quo is likely the only option and like that guy who ran for president sort of said -- wait for an opportunity to kick the can down the road.
ReplyDeleteSomething like that.
There is no prospect of a deal at least until there is some kind of a secular counter revolution across Muslim countries like Ataturk's and the Islamic Revolution is washed back all the way to Tehran. .
The chances of that? Not impossible. Egypt is encouraging. So it is just nearly impossible is all.
Jay, you will have to send us an occasional Letter from the Road. You now, like Elinor's except not from Israel. Have you a camera or i phone? Everyone loves a good road movie.
Just saying.
Geoff, what do you think of the idea of annexing J and S?
DeleteSure thing, geoffff. I do have a bit of a photography habit. I'll certainly be checking in here, and probably turning my blog into a travelblog while I'm out there.
Delete(Unless something local comes along and I don't have to head out over the road! Still holding out a slim hope something local or regional might pop up over the next few weeks...)
There never was a two state solution. It was a trojan horse from day 1. The Arabs saw it as a political wedge with which to eventually do away with Israel. Nothing has changed to indicate that's no longer true. What will eventually happen is that Israel will do two things - they will both annex part of Yesha AND they will materially pull back form most of Yesha. Israel will be, practically speaking, more or less what it is now with about 10% of Yesha under Jewish sovereignty including all of Jerusalem. They will maintain a paper-based control over the whole of Yesha but will essentially ignore what happens there while the Arabs neither announce their new state nor take any steps to erect one. EU states will 'recognize' palestine but it will be a state w/o borders, a government, a functioning economy, constitution, rules except for one rule - the rule of ethnic cleansing of Jews. After a few more decades of that, Israel will declare an autonomous Arab state as a logistical measure to separate from it.
ReplyDeleteBut in the short run, Abbas will die soon precipitating a low level civil war among the Arabs. This should take 2-3 years. It will result in chaos for the Arabs with no final single monolithic government or order. Hamas, PFLP, and even more extreme groups will be locked in a semi stalemate. Hamas will be unable to control all of the Arab revenant of Yesha and eventually will pull back to Gaza to attempt to become the world's first fully functioning legitimate terrorist nation that openly uses terrorism as both a domestic and foreign policy tool. It will be more successful on the foreign policy stage than in Gaza and this will leave them unstable and prone to periodic violent attacks on Israel. In Yesha though most of the violence will be contained to intra-arab attacks except in places that the Israeli government has already signaled it can live without. Resulting in Jewish ethnic cleansing. If the Kingdom of Jordan falls to ISIS or something like it then the 'palestinians' are finished. ISIS will put them down like dogs.
Sounds about right to me, sadly...
DeleteWhy does no one discuss the Palestinian Emirates solution?
ReplyDeleteBecause it is politically intolerable for anyone to consider 'bantustans'. What with most of the world screaming Israel is 'apartheid' now, the idea that that would somehow become formally solidified is absolutely something that has zero chance of success. Ever.
DeleteThe elephant in the room is not what the Jews will or will not do. It's what the Arabs will never ever ever ever ever ever do. And that's to actually have, declare, own and operate their own country. Day one of 'palestine' then every single Arab nation on earth marches every last 'palestinian' to the border at gunpoint and tells them to leave with the shirts on their backs. All of a sudden that idea that there's eleventy million 'refugees' doesn't sound so appealing, does it? Now the palestinians with their bright shiny new country have to cope with doubling or tripling their population overnight. And after a hundred years of squatting in the dust screaming for handouts that won't go well for them. In fact it will go so poorly it will create a humanitarian disaster. Not to say the Arabs aren't happy to exploit their own disasters, which they are, but this time they'd actually be at least in part, accountable. And instead of being a defacto UN protectorate like they are now, they'd become am EU/UN/US/other protectorate. And what with other people suddenly telling them what to do it can only result in killing all the people trying to save them with all the earnestness of White Man's Burden they can muster. A 'palestine' where 4 million bedraggled 'palestinians' are suddenly dumped on them would turn into Iraq circa 2005 pretty quickly.
Again though, their leaders don't care if it does, in fact they'd welcome it. They always have. But in this instance they will find they wore out their welcome with the west. It's one thing to bomb Mosul. It's another thing to micromanage an insurgency in a 'country' filled with lazy useless people who want to kill you at the same time they're screaming for handouts.
My recommendation is the Viceroy Solution. Turn over 100% of the governance and operations of everything in Arab-Yesha to some supranational body. Not the UN not UNRWA but an actual in-place completely self sufficient government which handles it all. From infrastructure to roads to food distribution to garbage collection, the post office - everything. 100% outsource it all just the way the UAE, or Saudi Arabia are countries where the entire workforce is foreign non citizens who make up 75-90% of the population. Pay the 'palestinians' to stay home and collect welfare while everyone else does the work. In this case everyone else can be a mixture of Africans, Asians and Europe's unemployed. What better way to help out the jobless in the EU than giving them permanent civil service jobs in 'palestine'? The climate's nice, people like the Arabs anyway and it's the Balm of Gilead they've always told one another they'd love to be part of.
I'm dead serious. Back of the envelope, 20 billion Euros a year plus 20 billion capital investment for the first 5 years would solve this problem for decades and decades. Once the Arabs develop diabetes and obesity, once they stop worrying about who's going to kill them for being 'a collaborator' they'll calm down. Once someone ensures that the criminal gangs who run 'palestine' today are granted a reasonable rate of return on their theft, bribery, graft and corruption they will calm down too. The EU Viceroys can allot a generous level of in-gathering to 'palestine' to take the pressure off the other Arab states at a measured rate. Say two hundred thousand people a year who are 'refugees' in Arab states will be given 'palestinian' citizenship and residency. At current UN estimates, moving all of them to their 'homeland' will take 10-12 years. If the local populations object to that timetable then the EU can 'temporarily' house them in Europe until their turn comes up. A few million more Arabs in Europe living on the dole isn't going to be noticed unless they start building rockets and car bombs. If, when their turn arrives they don't want to go to 'palestine' well that's a procedural issue. They can petition their local courts for relief. If there still are courts in Europe by then, maybe it will all be sharia inspired lunacy and the whole question is largely moot.
DeleteI love you, Trudy.
Delete:O)