Thursday, March 12, 2015

In the Eye of the Whirlpool

Michael L.

Whirlpool by Doctorwhite1995Those of us who care about the well-being of Israel and of the Jewish people are in a very curious moment.

The Speech has come and gone and the resultant anti-Netanyahu hysteria seems to be winding down a tad, but nobody is quite sure what we are facing going forward.

There are three major questions in the air at this moment and we will not know how things are shaping up until the outlines of the answers to those questions become clear.

Those questions are concerned with the upcoming Israeli elections, ISIS, and a potential Iranian nuclear weapon.

Until we begin to see the answer to these questions, we are sort-of bobbing in the eye of a political whirlpool.

First there is the election:

Will Netanyahu be able to hold on?  Maybe.  But, maybe not.  We could very well see an Israeli Prime Minister Herzog in the not too distant future.  If the Israeli Left - via emphases on economic and non-security issues - manages to get those 61 seats then Israel's relations around the world will change, at least in some measure.  The Obama administration could certainly expect a more compliant government in Jerusalem.  And, if this is the case, what will this mean in terms of the hideous final death rattle of the Oslo Accords?

My suspicion is that Barack Obama will give the corpse mouth-to-mouth resuscitation - but there will be no negotiated conclusion of hostilities within a two-state solution.  This is for the exceedingly simple reason that a two-state solution, with a State of Palestine in peace next to Israel, is emphatically not the national aspiration of the Palestinian-Arab leadership, nor the Palestinian-Arab people, who would generally prefer to see the Jews dead or gone.

Failing a negotiated two-state solution, the West - as Barack and Michelle pack their bags - may force a non-negotiated two-state solution down Israel's throat under a weak Herzog government.  This is an eventuality that needs to be taken into consideration.  Certainly the trends out of Europe that we see, lo, these last months and years, point in that direction.

Whatever direction the Israeli government takes, however, we will have a strong inkling shortly.

Then there is the Islamic State:

We may, also, very well see significant movement on the ISIS question within a matter of weeks.

We are in the midst of the battle for Tikrit and if the Iraqi Sunni-Shia coalition holds, and if it beats the Islamic State, it will represent a serious blow to that execrable organization, and, in some measure, to political Islam as a international political movement.  So, keep a close eye on ISIS, because whether in the coming months it fails or it thrives, this will tell us something about the near-term fortunes for political Islam, more generally.

And, finally there is Iran:

Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu just got shamefully gang-raped for daring to suggest that maybe the international community should not allow an Islamist Iran a nuclear bomb until they stop threatening genocide against the Jews of the Middle East.

{What a crime against humanity.}

Netanyahu wants Iran to cease encroachment into surrounding countries, cease promoting terrorism around the world, and cease calling for the destruction of the Jewish State of Israel.  For daring to express this highly commonsensical set of notions the man was lambasted as a war-monger and just the Single Worst Person on the Planet.  The unbelievable vitriol spit at Netanyahu, particularly by the international Left, tells us far more about them than it does about him.

They have turned him into a screen upon which that they project their own vile shadows.

In any case, the question is, will Iran, or will Iran not, do the nuclear break-out dance any time soon?  The truth is, we just do not know the answer to that question and what you think on the matter depends, for many people, on how much faith they have in the Obama administration.  But, faith or no faith, if the deal as described by Netanyahu resembles reality then it is practically an Iranian nuclear yellow brick road.

The maximum length of a hudna is ten years according to traditional Islamic sources and - coincidentally enough - the "sun" in the deal is said to "set" in ten years.

This is not what we were told by the Obama administration initially.  What we were told was that it was US policy to oppose the emergence of an Iranian bomb, not seek to manage it.

So, from my perspective, this is where we are.

We are in the "eye of the whirlpool" and we really won't know what direction we will be tossed until some of these matters begin to resolve themselves.

Israelis go to the polls this coming Tuesday, March 17.

Whoever wins - left, right, or center - let us just hope that they serve the people well.

And, whoever wins, it will undoubtedly alter the nature of the conversation going forward, because a part of the landscape will become more clear.

33 comments:

  1. Mike,
    If the election results in a Herzog led government, what do you expect the security implications of that would be?
    The Obama administration ( odious) and the truly toxic Europeans will be delighted to have a compliant government that they 'approve' of. The International community, particularly the present International left, see Israel as their very own project. It is condescending beyond belief. I dread the coverage coming up in our media.
    Will a leftist Israeli government seek a two state solution without considering the reality of how unlikely that is to politically succeed? Do they believe that if Israel withdraws from the 'West Bank ' that the PA would actually want to get on - with the help of the international community - to build a state and provide a future for the Palestinian people?
    As Matti Friedman said recently, the vacuum created by that would almost certainly result in the equivalent of another Gaza, or possibly much worse. Islamic State are in the area, and with the volatility of the region, the potential for a West Bank dominated by hard-line Islamists ( possibly with much more powerful weapons) is very real. Likely.
    I am trying to work out whether any of these people really believe that their pushed for two state solution is genuinely workable, or whether they are grossly naive.
    It seems to me, the increasingly poisonous attempt to delegitimise Israel, through BDS, Lawfare, and ratcheting up such a hostile culture to her, has behind it a long-term desire to move towards a one state solution.
    It seems to be the only believable goal of the Palestinian leadership. And, of the international left.
    If a two state solution could by some miracle work - fantastic. But I think it's cloud- cuckoo- land. Sadly!
    I really feel that what all these various parties / actors are building towards is a bi- national state. That would achieve for them their real goal. No more " Jewish State", a country that complies with the wording of the original UN charter. Regardless of the whole history of military attacks on Israel by its neighbours. And the ferocious jew- hatred that surrounds her.
    Either they believe, in good faith, that a two state solution will solve the problems. Or, much more frightening, they don't care if it leads to an outcome where Israel is seriously threatened by another terrorist state on its doorstep. Only even nearer to its population.
    I think this time, with the election, the presence of Obama in the White House ( which has massively green- lighted the European assault on Israel, and the febrile atmosphere surrounding all things 'Israel', will very likely lead to profoundly disturbing things.
    Be very interested to know what you think.


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    1. k, I suspect that if we see a Herzog government in Israel then we will see the next useless repeat of the non-peace process.

      It will be deja vu all over again.:

      1) The US and the EU demand negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

      2) The parties agree to talk and then the PA, the US, and the EU demand various concessions from Israel for the great privilege of sitting down with the PA's foremost undertaker.

      3) Israel fails to meet all the concessions, thus causing the PA to flee negotiations, which they never had any intention of concluding to begin with.

      4) The PA and the EU and the Obama administration place the blame for failure at Jewish feet.

      5) The EU and various European countries announce additional sanctions, thereby essentially joining the anti-Semitic anti-Zionist BDS movement.

      6) Arabs seek to murder Jews.

      This was my prediction before the latest round and it turned out to be correct.

      I figure that I will let it ride.

      If, however, we see a right-leaning government then it's possible that the corpse of Oslo will finally get the formal burial that it so richly deserves.

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    2. Yes. I would imagine that is a fair description of what will happen.

      And it looks like Herzog will most likely form a government. It seems so.

      My loathing of Obama, and the EU knows no bounds.

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    3. I find it more and more difficult to be in this part of the world.
      It's a very disturbing atmosphere. With great momentum.

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    4. There are only a few places in the world today for Jewish people and none of them are in Europe.

      Israel, North America, Australia... and that basically sums up that.

      Are you in England, k?

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    5. Good!

      We could use a few Brits around this joint.

      Aussies we've got, but for some reason Americans and Australians just seem to see eye to eye.

      Jeez, I cannot imagine why that would be.

      :O)

      But, y'know, k, outside of Israeli Jews, I worry the most about Euro Jews.

      In fact, let's reverse that.

      I worry more about Euro Jews than I do about the Israeli variety because the latter has weaponry and knows how to use it.

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    6. Hey, hey Mike. I'm a Brit.

      It's not a case of Americans and Aussies see eye to eye. It's a case right wing Jews see eye to eye.
      Don't give me the crap Mike Lumish that you aren't a right winger either. I've known you a good few years now and Ive seen the change around in you.

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    7. I want to know where that semi-annual mattress salesperson who comments on years-old blog posts is from. ;)

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  2. You guys need to read this from Arlene Kushner in Israel

    http://jewsdownunder.com/2015/03/12/arlene-israel-election/

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    Replies
    1. Thank you so much for that link.
      Powerfully argued.
      I tend to agree with the general thrust of it.
      I worry intensely about the 'real' security implications of the situation we are moving towards.
      I cannot understate how dangerous I think Obama is- and there's plenty of time for him to do worse.
      And, living in Europe, I experience all the time the growing wish to treat Israel as the world's only real pariah state. A state that 'needs' to be eliminated. Sadly, security needs to be paramount.

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    2. Scary to think how our own people will vote to destroy Israel in a vain attempt to curry favor with people who quite frankly hate us!

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    3. Thank you, Shirlee.

      I always find Arlene's point of view interesting.

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    4. She is really good. Has a great perspective on 'things'. She's an old time journo with terrific contacts in the Arab and non Arab world, both in and out of Israel.

      A few months back I was having quite a set to with Mudar Zahran. he was telling me something about Bibi which I knew was wrong as Arlene had been writing about it. I sent her an email asking her to verify the facts. She made contact with a Jordanian and got me the answer.

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  3. FYI: In case you haven't looked into the cesspool:

    A Mondoweiss full on inspired diary is on the rec list.

    And in the comments

    Personally... (3+ / 0-)
    ...I value Mondoweiss' coverage. But I have to skew on the side of what (seems to be) the site guidelines on this. It would be a problem if I hadn't been able to replace the MW links with links to non-MW sources with the same material.

    Talk to Action

    by Troutfishing on Thu Mar 12, 2015 at 11:43:47 AM EDT

    So he is inspired by that hate site

    That's the thing... (0+ / 0-)
    the 'banning' of Mondoweiss was most championed by posters who are now banned themselves.
    So is it still 'law'?
    by protectspice on Thu Mar 12, 2015 at 03:52:24 PM EDT

    Look here, this one is happy that those who are against the hate site are now banned and asks that they be able to re-use it again!

    And there is a whole slew of other comments supporting these views!

    WTF!

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    Replies
    1. Just had a look at that. Yes. Vile!
      Still, what do you expect from them?
      It's unfortunate, but just what they are. Vile and sad. Also, phenomenally stupid really. As all their type are.
      Look at counterpunch. They are considered experts, and given huge legitimacy and credibility.

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    2. That is some truly despicable, concern trolling trash. The final few paragraphs read like something ripped straight off of Jeff Rense's website.

      'Troutfishing' could have saved a few hundred words, and still gotten his 'point' across, by just typing -

      "Look, Jews, you'd better tell the Bad Jews to behave or we're not gonna be responsible for what happens to you all."

      Why am I not at all surprised that he "value[s]" the left-wing Stormfront, Mondoweiss?

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    3. Check this out. Here's a comment (with 4 uprates) which links to a Holocaust Denial website as proof of someone's claim that 'The Joooz know where your children are sleeping.'

      Delete
    4. I love it how "Tamar" (an avid JVP supporter) says... "Thanks, this is the kind of thing we need to back up claims"....

      Yeah.. .because nothing says credible like Nazi Propaganda.

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    5. I would say 'unbelievable,' but on second thought, it's actually too believable.

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    6. So even after four people finally came in to point out the troubling source, 'Troutfishing,' the guy who posted a ZOG diary and "value[s]" Mondoweiss, uprates a Holocaust Denial website anyway. I'm sure he's totally not an antisemite, though.

      Actual Nazi propaganda seems to now be considered reasonable material to use at Daily Kos.

      Maybe they need to ban a few more Jews from that site, that oughta help solve the problem of people pointing this out.

      Delete
  4. This is the Guardian today:

    http://www theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/12/the-battle-to-be-israels-conscience


    Guardian is obviously on the left, but it cannot be dismissed here in UK, as our major news outlets and our broadcasters take the exact same line. It's a pretty much all round cultural attitude.

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  5. If they unban Mondoshit will they also unban Stormfront? Seems only just. Then they can REALLY "criticize Israel"

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    1. Well I do call them Daily Storm Kos Front for a reason!

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  6. You could elect Lenin's mummy to the job, the liberals in the west would scream he's a fascist Jew warmonger doing the Zionists' bidding.

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    1. No question about it, Trudy.

      If Netanyahu were a cross between Mother Theresa, Martin Luther King, Jr., and Elmo from Sesame Street, they would still shake their fists and scream to the heavens that he's the worst baby-killing war-monger since Attila the Hun.

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  7. Now THIS is funny.

    http://hurryupharry.org/2015/03/13/askhamas/

    My question:

    Do you think your kids blow up way too fast nowadays?

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    Replies
    1. This one was my favorite -

      "#AskHamas my wife wants to change my rocket launching room into a room for our stupid baby. How should I honor kill her?"

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    2. Yeah, me too, Jay. Also the question as to whether the guy that gave Hamas this great idea was a Mossad agent. lol

      I guess Hamas sees the effect of social media has for Isis and figures it will help polish their image. Hell, all they really had to do was post on dKos. Kossacks love 'em.

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    3. I asked them, amongst other things, if they've ever tried prune juice to help deal with resistance to their movement(s), but I never got an answer.

      Great mix of humor and seriousness there. UKMediaWatch had another classic, with photo.

      "#AskHamas did Ahmed Jabari have comprehensive insurance coverage on his car?"

      Jabari was the Hamas #2 who had an unplanned meeting with an IDF missile while driving through Gaza City in November 2012.

      Boy, that would start a riot at Kos if they showed up there, eh? David Mizner would be the happiest terror-lover on the internet.

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    4. Well, Israel IS evil and Kossacks have to empathize with poor innocent cuddly genocidal Jew killing terrorists. Oh, and give Iran a bomb so Israel will get taken down a notch or two. And jobs for head choppers.

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    5. Not one university, college or trade school in the US offers courses in jihad*. That we are not recruiting these experienced professionals, who are left with no choice but to travel to the Islamic State to ply their trade, to become professors proves that we are an irredeemably racist society.

      It is completely the fault of Western nations that professional jihadis can not find work in our societies in their chosen field. The blame for every single chopped head lies directly at our feet.

      (*at least, I hope this is still true...)

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    6. Maybe only a matter of time.

      http://www.thecollegefix.com/post/21592/

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