Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Are Jews Abandoning the Democratic Party?

Recent polling seems to indicate that this is the case. If so, it is actually happening considerably faster than I thought it would.

On the right side of this blog is a graph that shows:

Party Affiliation by Religion - Long Term Trend - Pew Research Center (2010)

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This Pew poll showed that between 2008 and 2010 Jewish membership in the Democratic Party dropped from 72 percent to 60 percent and that Jewish membership in the Republican Party increased from 20 percent to 33 percent.

This means, depending upon the accuracy of these numbers... and Pew is very well respected... that the ratio of Jewish Democrats to Jewish Republicans went from well over 3 to 1 to just under 2 to 1 since Barack Obama took office.

I understand that these numbers are not etched in stone, but they definitely indicate movement. 

Something is happening, for sure.

But let's toss something else into the mix. How about the 2011 American Jewish Committee's (AJC) Annual Survey of American Jewish Opinion?

What they report is that 45 percent of American Jews consider themselves to be Democrats and 38 percent of American Jews consider themselves to be Republican.

45 to 38?


Holy Fucking Mackerel!  Really?

Jewish support for the Democratic Party is in free fall.

2008: 72% Democrats and 20% Republicans.

2010: 60% Democrats and 33% Republicans.

2011: 45% Democrats and 38% Republicans.

According to Pew and the AJC we are seeing a drop in Democratic Party support from well over 3 to 1, in 2008, to just under 2 to 1 in 2010, to something approaching equity with the Republican Party in 2011.

I have a gentleman's wager with Volleyboy1 concerning the Jewish vote for Barack in 2012.

Barack Obama received something near 80 percent of our vote in 2008.  I voted for the guy, myself, and we cheered in my old San Francisco apartment when the returns came in.

My bet is that Barack Obama will receive under 65 percent of the Jewish vote in 2012 and Volley bets that Obama will get 75 percent or above.

We shall see.



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